Friday, January 30, 2009

InterOil Technical Analysis

The recent pullback in the price for InterOil creates an interesting picture on the charts. After reaching highs above $20, the pullback seen in the last few days takes the market back to near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around %15.78. It's a crucial area for the near term. Support seen near here will be seen as a positive while a fall below 61.8% level at $14.19 will move the view back to neutral. On the upside, expect any near term gains to test and move likely break resistance bank of $20-21.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

POMSoX Update

The local share market had a calm day on Wednesday, with most of the stocks seeing less or no trades. BSP maintained its stance at K1.00 with average volume changing hands. IOL closed lower at US$17.34 in the AMEX, while NBO advanced 0.02 percent to end at STG2.20.

OSH this morning opened at A$4.34 while on the local market, the pre-open phase has bids for HIG at K0.14 while the offers are as low as K0.20.

LGL: the GM for Corporate affairs Joe Dowling provided an update on the interruption of mine operations in Lihir that LGL and the peak land owners are into talks to resolve the matter.

OSH: Oil Search limited released its 4th Quarter results highlighting that oil and gas production for the quarter was 2 percent up likewise the full year earnings for 2008 closed stronger by 13 percent from 2007 to US$811.6 million, driven by strong oil prices even though a sharp decline in the fourth quarter.

Nil movers on the bourse yesterday.

Saturday, January 3, 2009

Falling vol, positive signs emerging

A great deal has been said in the media about the performance of stock markets during 2008, and also about the reversal of fortune since the lows of November 20. After $30 trillion was wiped out from world equities during 2008, stock markets closed the year with a few up-days (albeit on thin volume).

If nothing else December was a month of recovery for many markets. Although few stocks markets had significant movement, volatility, a key issue for 2008, fell substantially over the month.

Global market view: The returns in the table below are given in the local currency of the various countries for different measurement periods ended 31 December.

Although developing markets have outperformed mature markets from the bull market highs of October 2007, the picture has changed since October 2008, as seen from the declining trend of the relative-strength graph of the MSCI World Index versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. This may be an early indicator of investors returning to riskier assets, or just a short term blip.

Notwithstanding the rallies since the troughs of November 20, all global stock markets were still massively down by year-end from their respective bull market highs, as well as since the start of 2008.

The worst performers since their peaks were Ireland (-76.5%), China (-70.2) and Russia (-68.2%). The 2008 performance of some of these countries is shown in the graph below.

With the indices of a number of individual countries having breached the 50-day moving average (and after year-end also having taken out the December peaks), the next target is the November 4 highs, followed by the key 200-day average. On the downside, the December 1 and the all-important November 20 lows must hold for the uptrend to remain intact. Source: NAB